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More and more opinion polls illustrate that the “will of the people” has changed since the European Union referendum in 2016, with more people than ever before supporting the United Kingdom remaining a member of the European Union.
The latest poll mapped by ‘What UK Thinks‘ shows that 51% of people support Remain, while 45% still support leaving the European Union. A preceding poll conducted by ComRes found a similar outcome: 52% of people support Remain, while only 38% support Leave. In both opinion polls the remainder responded with “don’t know/undecided”. These two polls constitute a much larger picture.
Figure 1, as illustrated below, indicates that this pattern has become persistent because numerous polls give Remain a lead. In fact, Remain has had a consistent lead since Deltapoll on 23 February 2019 found that 45% of people back Remain, in contrast to 41% who support Leave.
However, critics have dismissed the recent lead for Remain as insignificant because of the large number of people who still “don’t know” or are “undecided” of how they would vote “if there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU.
But if Remain is positioned against a no-deal option and the Prime Minister’s deal, then Remain has a substantial advantage over the two other options. For example, a recent YouGov survey found that Remain would be backed by 53% of the electorates, whereas, no-deal would have the support of 34% and the Prime Minister’s deal would just be supported by a dismal 12% in a three-way referendum. Thereby, Remainers would have an 18% lead over the second-best option in a second referendum.
The European Parliament elections later this month will prove to be a sizable indicator of whether the aforementioned opinion polls are correct – and more importantly it will also be a demonstration of whether the “will of the people has changed”.
