Following the debacle of Iowa’s caucus results, there has been no such uncertainty with the results in New Hampshire, with a clear two horse race beginning to emerge.
Just hours after the polls closed the results started trickling in, with early front-runner Bernie Sander’s once again proving the top choice among Democratic voters, achieving approximately 26% of the vote with almost all precincts reporting.
Former South Bend Mayor, Pete Buttigieg, once again placed in second, narrowly behind Bernie Sanders, on approximately 24% of the vote, meaning that both will take an equal share of delegates – 9 each – once again.
Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator and self-styled moderate candidate placed in third, with just under 20% of the vote, meaning that she claimed the remaining 6 delegates.
It is clear from the New Hampshire result that Bernie Sanders is going to be the candidate to beat, despite achieving fewer than half the number of votes he received in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, no candidate has ever won the opening two states and failed to become the presidential nominee.
Although one delegate behind Mayor Pete after the opening two states, he has won the most votes in both of the opening states and is opening a significant lead in national polling, recently besting establishment front-runner Joe Biden across national averages.
Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren were amongst the biggest losers of the night and it looks like both of their campaigns could be set to wind down in the coming weeks.
Elizabeth Warren placed fourth, with almost 10% of the vote, but failed to clear the threshold to receive any delegates for the Democratic National Convention, set to take place in Wisconsin in July.
It is Biden who was the biggest loser though, placing just behind Warren with 8.4% of the vote, again failing to pick up any delegates and showing that his campaign, already at this early stage, lacks the grassroots support to successfully seek the nomination for the presidency.
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In just 10 days’ time, Democrats in Nevada will be selecting their pick for president and without a strong performance here and in South Carolina on February 29th, it is likely that Biden will be forced out of the race, even before Super Tuesday.
Whilst Warren and Biden indicated that their campaigns are not yet finished, the night did see the end of ‘math guy’ Andrew Yang, who failed to top 5% and suspended his campaign almost immediately after the results were announced.
Although unlikely to ever win the nomination, Andrew Yang was popular amongst younger progressives with his focus on a universal basic income as a remedy to increasing automation within the American job market. His performance was not unexpected, with him being largely left out of most polls in the lead up to New Hampshire, making it difficult for him to gain name recognition or traction against nationally renowned candidates.
Despite the opening two states represent just 2% of the American electorate and that there are still 55 states and territories yet to vote, there is a clear race emerging between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Although billionaires Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomburg did not seriously compete in the opening states, in the hope of gaining serious front runner status later in the campaign, the first results suggest that a two-horse race is emerging.
Warren, Klobuchar and Biden may not be out of the race yet, but after winning in two states, Bernie Sanders is looking like the candidate to beat in this primary and with polling in Nevada and North Carolina suggesting he is likely to win there, his path to the nomination is far clearer than any other candidate.
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Calum Paton is a History and Politics student at the University of Warwick. His writing predominantly focuses on American and British politics. Twitter: @Paton_Calum
